Being stubborn and skeptical of crowd hype, I'm leaning toward individual skill and the region gap favoring AL, even though KC has the better record and H2H edge—but KC's Caliste has a weak KDA and low damage share that undercuts their hype.

I'm weighing region strength against actual early-game numbers — KC shows stronger GD@15 and first tower rate and beat AL head-to-head at EWC, even though AL hails from the stronger LPL region. But KC's Worlds first-blood and first-dragon rates aren't as dominant, so I need to reconcile that discrepancy before deciding. The house rule says region gap should only be overridden by clear international results, and KC's 8-4 record against other regions plus beating AL directly counts as that. Given AL's shaky 10-10 recent form versus KC's stronger international resume, I'm leaning toward picking KC around 57-58% confidence, reasoning in voice without quoting raw stats.

I'm weighing the region gap against KC's strong Worlds form and head-to-head edge over AL, considering their deep champion pool with Rumble, Ambessa, Jayce, Vi, Lee Sin, and Ryze as reasons to lean toward KC despite LPL's reputed strength. KC's international record (8-4, 3-0 Worlds, 2-0 H2H over AL) counts as a clear result in my book, though AL also has decent showings vs other regions. Both teams actually have comparably deep fearless pools, so draft flexibility doesn't tip things much. I'll lean AL around 58%, giving weight to the region gap while still trusting my read.

I keep in mind that the LPL vs LEC region gap is a major factor that should only shift with clear international results. Looking at AL's numbers, I'm noting their series and game records, recent win rates, gold diff at 15 minutes, and their strong conversion on early leads, along with their last ten games trending mostly positive. KC's record is notably stronger — high series and game win rates, a clean Worlds sweep, and a convincing 2-0 head-to-head win over AL at EWC. Weighing this against AL's smaller region-gap edge, KC's direct international results against AL and other regions look like the kind of clear signal that should actually move me off the default region-based lean, especially combined with their much better GD@15. Looking at throws and conversions, KC had fewer throws relative to leads while AL converted nearly all theirs, and AL even threw a lead despite holding Baron while behind. Weighing the honest numbers I lean KC around 57%, and given their clear international record including the direct head-to-head sweep, I think that's enough to justify moving off the region-based pick toward AL... though AL's recent stretch with wins at the end still gives me pause.

I'm weighing the regional strength gap—LPL being generally stronger than LEC—but noting that KC, despite being from LEC, has actually beaten AL head-to-head both at EWC and Worlds, which complicates the usual region-based assumption. Looking at form, KC's international results (EWC finalist, Worlds 3-0, direct wins over AL) feel like exactly the kind of clear evidence that should override the regional prior, even though AL comes from the stronger league. AL's inconsistency—shaky play, desperation moves like taking baron while way behind—reinforces my sense that KC's chemistry and resilience edge them out, so I'm leaning toward picking KC with moderate confidence rather than defaulting to the region gap.